Calendar Year Performance 2014Calendar Year Performance 2015Calendar Year Performance 2016Calendar Year Performance 2017Calendar Year Performance 2018Calendar Year Performance 2019Calendar Year Performance 2020Calendar Year Performance 2021Calendar Year Performance 2022Calendar Year Performance 2023
+ 5.3 %
+ 0.2 %
+ 9.8 %
+ 7.3 %
- 14.4 %
+ 18.6 %
+ 20.4 %
- 5.2 %
- 9.6 %
+ 7.8 %
Net Asset Value
138.1 €
Asset Under Management
371 M €
Market
Emerging markets
SFDR - Fund Classification
Article
8
Data as of: 29 Feb 2024.
Data as of: 27 Mar 2024.
Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future performance. Performances are net of fees (excluding possible entrance fees charged by the distributor). The return may increase or decrease as a result of currency fluctuations, for the shares which are not currency-hedged.
Emerging markets were up sharply in February, in contrast to January, which was a trickier month. Share indices (+6.9% for the Hang Seng, +9.6% for the CSI 300) benefitted from new stimulus by the Chinese government, which lowered its 5-year interest rates by another 25 basis points. China also celebrated its lunar new year, pushing consumer spending and tourism back up to pre-Covid levels. Tourist spending was 7.7% higher than it was over the same period of 2019, reaching CNY 632.7bn (EUR 81.5bn). However, looking at the economic data, the NBS manufacturing indicator was in contraction territory (49.1 in February after 49.2 in January) for the fifth month in a row, showing that the country has yet to resolve its structural problems. India’s annual inflation fell to 5.1% in January. Its manufacturing indicator gained 2.4% over November and 3.8% over December. In this context, the Nifty 50 returned +1.2% over the month. South Korea’s economy continued to benefit from US-China tensions and the buzz surrounding AI stocks, as the KOSPI index gained 6.5%.
Performance commentary
The Fund delivered a positive performance, in line with its reference indicator. Our equity component benefitted from Chinese markets’ rally. Our consumer discretionary stocks such as Anta Sports and Vipshop were up. The government’s recent discussions about tutoring and teaching support measures also helped our education specialist New Oriental, which performed well over the month. In South Korea, Hyundai Motor’s announcement of solid results, with an improvement in vehicle sales despite a weak automotive market in the United States, led the share price to rise, making this position the biggest contributor to the Fund’s monthly performance. At a fixed income level, our external debt holdings also raised performance considerably, especially in Africa. Our long position on Egypt was particularly profitable following the IMF’s various comments on the funds that it will be disbursing. Our exposure to Ecuadorian debt added to performance, as did our selection of Mexican bank bonds. At a foreign exchange level, our management of the South Korean won proved a little costly.
Outlook strategy
We remain optimistic for emerging markets in 2024. The vast emerging world presents numerous opportunities across all regions and asset classes. Disinflation and the end of the Federal Reserve’s and ECB’s rate-hiking cycle are a big help to emerging market assets early in 2024. However, a few systemic risks remain: China’s jittery real estate sector (and therefore economy); and geopolitical uncertainties. In the short term, these uncertainties call for active management through a combination of equity and credit hedges to protect the portfolio if the economy slows too much. On the fixed income side, we remain long on the debt and currencies of economies with high real interest rates and of commodity exporting countries like Brazil, Mexico, Colombia and South Africa. During the month we strengthened our positions on Chinese local debt given that disinflationary pressures are mounting and the markets are expecting rate cuts. At government bond level, we still prefer manufacturing countries that will benefit from nearshoring, i.e. the repatriation of production chains to nearer, more stable countries (Romania, Mexico). However, we think that the market has now fully priced in the possibility of central banks cutting interest rates in 2024, which is why we have taken profits on our bond positions, reducing the portfolio’s overall duration. Although we still have high exposure to the euro (the Fund’s base currency), we increased exposure to certain emerging market currencies, especially undervalued commodity-based currencies including the Brazilian real and Chilean peso, and certain Asian currencies such as the won, as the South Korean economy should benefit from the AI boom. In addition to the EM currencies mentioned above, we are still long on the Japanese yen as we think it remains undervalued. We nudged our equity exposure up to around 22%, increasing exposure to Korean markets and, in particular, Asian technology stocks as the artificial intelligence theme is leading to sustained growth in demand for semiconductors and electronic components. We also took advantage of Chinese equity markets’ rally to reduce our exposure to China, closing positions in biotech leader WuXi Biologics and online services specialist Meituan. We increased our exposure to the Indian market and, in particular, its banking sector through private bank Kotak Mahindra as valuations had returned to reasonable levels.
Reference to certain securities and financial instruments is for illustrative purposes to highlight stocks that are or have been included in the portfolios of funds in the Carmignac range. This is not intended to promote direct investment in those instruments, nor does it constitute investment advice. The Management Company is not subject to prohibition on trading in these instruments prior to issuing any communication. The portfolios of Carmignac funds may change without previous notice.
The reference to a ranking or prize, is no guarantee of the future results of the UCIS or the manager.
Carmignac Portfolio is a sub-fund of Carmignac Portfolio SICAV, an investment company under Luxembourg law, conforming to the UCITS Directive.
The information presented above is not contractually binding and does not constitute investment advice. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. Performances are net of fees (excluding possible entrance fees charged by the distributor), where applicable. Investors may lose some or all of their capital, as the capital in the UCI is not guaranteed. Access to the products and services presented herein may be restricted for some individuals or countries. Taxation depends on the situation of the individual. The risks, fees and recommended investment period for the UCI presented are detailed in the KIDs (key information documents) and prospectuses available on this website. The KID must be made available to the subscriber prior to purchase.). The reference to a ranking or prize, is no guarantee of the future results of the UCITS or the manager.
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Market environment
Emerging markets were up sharply in February, in contrast to January, which was a trickier month. Share indices (+6.9% for the Hang Seng, +9.6% for the CSI 300) benefitted from new stimulus by the Chinese government, which lowered its 5-year interest rates by another 25 basis points. China also celebrated its lunar new year, pushing consumer spending and tourism back up to pre-Covid levels. Tourist spending was 7.7% higher than it was over the same period of 2019, reaching CNY 632.7bn (EUR 81.5bn). However, looking at the economic data, the NBS manufacturing indicator was in contraction territory (49.1 in February after 49.2 in January) for the fifth month in a row, showing that the country has yet to resolve its structural problems. India’s annual inflation fell to 5.1% in January. Its manufacturing indicator gained 2.4% over November and 3.8% over December. In this context, the Nifty 50 returned +1.2% over the month. South Korea’s economy continued to benefit from US-China tensions and the buzz surrounding AI stocks, as the KOSPI index gained 6.5%.