Calendar Year Performance 2014Calendar Year Performance 2015Calendar Year Performance 2016Calendar Year Performance 2017Calendar Year Performance 2018Calendar Year Performance 2019Calendar Year Performance 2020Calendar Year Performance 2021Calendar Year Performance 2022Calendar Year Performance 2023
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- 4.5 %
+ 3.9 %
Net Asset Value
100.5 €
Asset Under Management
1 272 M €
Market
European market
SFDR - Fund Classification
Article
8
Data as of: 29 Feb 2024.
Data as of: 27 Mar 2024.
Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future performance. Performances are net of fees (excluding possible entrance fees charged by the distributor). The return may increase or decrease as a result of currency fluctuations, for the shares which are not currency-hedged.
February was a turning point for the disinflation trend that had been shoring up the markets over previous months. Growth figures brought more pleasant surprises on both sides of the Atlantic, but the (dis)inflation trend disappointed investors. While credit indices continued to benefit from growth being stronger than anticipated, sovereign assets performed much less glowingly, with traders forced to lower their expectations of central bank rate cuts in 2024. In the United States, leading and lagging indicators seem to be converging towards a single benign growth scenario. Both the manufacturing and service components of PMIs improved, and consumer confidence picked up further in February, showing businesses’ and households’ shared enthusiasm about the economic outlook. This US economic exceptionalism results from the knock-on effects of a growing labour market, on which job reports were surprisingly positive once again. However, this frenetic growth seems to impinge on the immaculate disinflation scenario that had been underpinning risk appetite. While headline inflation continues to benefit from the sharp drop in commodity prices, core inflation disappointed investors, sticking at +3.9% y/y, while the services price index rebounded to +5.4% y/y. The US Federal Reserve chair therefore took a less dovish than expected tone, driving up yields. The 10-year Treasury yield gained 34 bps over the month, reversing last December’s bond rally. Albeit to a lesser extent, the Eurozone also showed signs of progress with leading indicators still rebounding as the services sector expands. Inflation slowed by less than expected due to the robust services component of core inflation. While wage growth seems to have peaked, the figure of +4.5% y/y remains well above the European Central Bank’s inflation target. This combination of firmer growth and stickier inflation led to the 10-year Bund yield gaining 25 bps, while risky assets made further progress as high yield spreads narrowed by 23 bps. Japan’s complacent monetary policy seems even more likely to end with the publication of higher-than-expected core inflation, above the 2% mark for the 11th month in a row.
Performance commentary
With interest rates experiencing upside pressures and credit markets showing a degree of resilience, our combination of lower duration on core debt and exposure to the most defensive segments of the credit market meant the Fund’s performance was only slightly negative, and much better than its reference indicator’s. Our allocation to short-dated, highly rated corporate and financial bonds with attractive carry limited the impact of higher interest rates in February. The portfolio’s selection of collateralised loan obligations and exposure to money market instruments continues to have a positive impact.
Outlook strategy
Against a backdrop of economic resilience, which is making central banks cautious and forcing the markets to reconsider the timing of rate cuts, which are now likely to come later, the portfolio is keeping a moderate position on core debt, mainly involving inflation and curve steepening strategies, and a significant credit allocation (64%). We still view credit, which accounts for nearly two thirds of our portfolio, as an attractive performance driver from a buy-and-hold perspective, and are keeping some tactical hedging given the valuation levels now reached. Our exposure is concentrated on short-dated investment grade issues, with financials, energy and CLOs our three strongest convictions. We remain exposed to real yields and breakeven inflation rates, which could benefit from any disruption to the disinflation trend at a time of political and geopolitical uncertainty. The portfolio’s average yield was around 4.8% at month-end, at the top of its 10-year range, and this should continue to drive performance over the year ahead.
Reference to certain securities and financial instruments is for illustrative purposes to highlight stocks that are or have been included in the portfolios of funds in the Carmignac range. This is not intended to promote direct investment in those instruments, nor does it constitute investment advice. The Management Company is not subject to prohibition on trading in these instruments prior to issuing any communication. The portfolios of Carmignac funds may change without previous notice.
The reference to a ranking or prize, is no guarantee of the future results of the UCIS or the manager.
Carmignac Portfolio is a sub-fund of Carmignac Portfolio SICAV, an investment company under Luxembourg law, conforming to the UCITS Directive.
The information presented above is not contractually binding and does not constitute investment advice. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. Performances are net of fees (excluding possible entrance fees charged by the distributor), where applicable. Investors may lose some or all of their capital, as the capital in the UCI is not guaranteed. Access to the products and services presented herein may be restricted for some individuals or countries. Taxation depends on the situation of the individual. The risks, fees and recommended investment period for the UCI presented are detailed in the KIDs (key information documents) and prospectuses available on this website. The KID must be made available to the subscriber prior to purchase.). The reference to a ranking or prize, is no guarantee of the future results of the UCITS or the manager.
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Market environment
February was a turning point for the disinflation trend that had been shoring up the markets over previous months. Growth figures brought more pleasant surprises on both sides of the Atlantic, but the (dis)inflation trend disappointed investors. While credit indices continued to benefit from growth being stronger than anticipated, sovereign assets performed much less glowingly, with traders forced to lower their expectations of central bank rate cuts in 2024. In the United States, leading and lagging indicators seem to be converging towards a single benign growth scenario. Both the manufacturing and service components of PMIs improved, and consumer confidence picked up further in February, showing businesses’ and households’ shared enthusiasm about the economic outlook. This US economic exceptionalism results from the knock-on effects of a growing labour market, on which job reports were surprisingly positive once again. However, this frenetic growth seems to impinge on the immaculate disinflation scenario that had been underpinning risk appetite. While headline inflation continues to benefit from the sharp drop in commodity prices, core inflation disappointed investors, sticking at +3.9% y/y, while the services price index rebounded to +5.4% y/y. The US Federal Reserve chair therefore took a less dovish than expected tone, driving up yields. The 10-year Treasury yield gained 34 bps over the month, reversing last December’s bond rally. Albeit to a lesser extent, the Eurozone also showed signs of progress with leading indicators still rebounding as the services sector expands. Inflation slowed by less than expected due to the robust services component of core inflation. While wage growth seems to have peaked, the figure of +4.5% y/y remains well above the European Central Bank’s inflation target. This combination of firmer growth and stickier inflation led to the 10-year Bund yield gaining 25 bps, while risky assets made further progress as high yield spreads narrowed by 23 bps. Japan’s complacent monetary policy seems even more likely to end with the publication of higher-than-expected core inflation, above the 2% mark for the 11th month in a row.