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Carmignac Patrimoine: Letter from the Fund Managers

  • +2.27%

    Carmignac Patrimoine's performance
    in the 2nd quarter of 2021 for the A EUR Acc share class.

  • +3.26%

    Reference Indicator's performance
    in the 2nd quarter of 2021 for 50% MSCI ACWI (USD) (Reinvested net dividends) + 50% ICE BofA Global Government Index (USD). Quarterly rebalanced.

  • +3.47%

    Performance of the Fund Year-to-Date
    versus +6.84% for the reference indicator

Market environment

During the second quarter, equity markets continued their robust advance (+6.04%) under renewed growth stock leadership, while the dollar fell (-0.85%) and bonds rallied modestly (+0.84%). This stands in contrast to the first quarter’s market drivers, when bonds suffered their worst quarterly return since 1987 (-3.15%), the dollar rose (+3.66%), and a similarly strong equity advance (+8.39%) was driven by the more cyclical value segment.

Carmignac Patrimoine benefited from its balanced positioning across regions, asset classes, and themes with performance primarily driven by both secular growth and reopening equities, but also by credit investments in corporates and emerging sovereigns, as well as dollar and yen currency hedging. This performance was restrained somewhat by conservative exposure management across both equities and core duration. Among our top equity contributors of the quarter, we note Hermès, as well as Alphabet and Facebook. Across our top contributors on the fixed income side, the Chinese government bond market advanced +1.34% during the quarter, bringing year-to-date returns to +2.23% versus -2.34% for developed markets. China’s strongly positive real rates and conservative policy mix stand in stark contrast to the financial repression in western markets. Romania and quasi-sovereign energy credits such as Pemex and Gazprom also drove returns, benefiting from improving underlying fundamentals and attractive spreads from mispriced political risks.

On the other hand, performance was constrained during the quarter because of lagging Chinese equity markets and conservative exposure management. Although we benefited from the delayed rise in rates in German bond markets due to their Europe’s delayed vaccination and reopening schedule, we were penalised by our short exposure in the US Treasury market. US ten-year yields declined during the quarter from 1.74% to 1.47%, as expectations for the next phase of Biden’s fiscal spending were reduced, the Fed hinted at allowing a shorter and shallower inflation overshoot than the market had priced, and the delta variant impacted economies with lower vaccination rates and higher reliance on tourism.

Portfolio allocation

A desynchronised global recovery continues to unfold, with differences in the pace of vaccination and government policy support driving relative performance across economies and capital markets. While current robust activity levels in developed markets have been supported by the reopening of economies and highly stimulative monetary and fiscal policies, the shift in market internals from the first to second quarter shows a reduction of medium-term growth and inflation expectations as markets adjust to the reality of a reduced political will in the United States to continue fiscal and monetary policy support, and a slower eradication of Covid worldwide.

Overall, our equity exposure remains high (43%) as the outlook for equity markets is constructive, with a sustainably high inflation scenario receding thanks to a more vigilant Fed. Secular growth stocks should benefit from this environment especially at a time when overall corporate earnings growth will decelerate, making their steady growth relatively more attractive. In addition, the probability of sharp US tax increases is decreasing as fiscal spending seems to be curtailed somewhat by an increasingly divided Democratic Party.

In the short-term, US activity will remain well above trend and a closed output gap will pressure wages higher. Current strong inflation driven by unsustainable reopening demand and supply constraints will abate, but towards the end of the year more persistent inflationary pressures might surprise. If housing market strength and rental market tightness begin to feed through into shelter CPI (Consumer Price Index), there will be further pressure on the Fed to tighten earlier and faster. Less fiscal and monetary policy support justifies lower medium-term growth and inflation expectations, flatter curves, and additional support for the dollar. In this context, we have increased our overall duration (from -150 basis points at the end of Q121 to 52 basis points) and US dollar exposure (from 26% to 28%). Our main government bond exposures are in jurisdictions with substantial ability to ease policy, for example China; and where there is little pressure to tighten policy because of persistent output gaps and modest inflation, for example in Europe. Our corporate and emerging market spread product ought to perform well in this environment.

Outlook

Our equity investment process revolves around identifying promising secular trends in order to invest in companies that show strong growth regardless of economic conditions. As we enter the second half of 2021, we continue to pay particular attention to stocks with high valuation multiples in an environment of potential rate hikes. We have therefore weighted the portfolio towards growth stocks offering valuations that we judge reasonable, and which can be found among certain mega-caps such as Facebook and Google.

Overall, we maintained a liquid and solid equity portfolio of strong conviction investments, diversified in terms of geography, sectors and themes. Our core thematics currently revolve around:

Carmignac
Source: Carmignac, 30/06/2020
Gold: 3.7%
Others: 4.8%

Carmignac Patrimoine

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Carmignac Patrimoine A EUR Acc

ISIN: FR0010135103
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 (YTD)
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Year to date
Carmignac Patrimoine A EUR Acc +8.81 % +0.72 % +3.88 % +0.09 % -11.29 % +10.55 % +12.40 % -0.88 % -9.38 % +2.20 % +3.99 %
Reference Indicator +15.97 % +8.35 % +8.05 % +1.47 % -0.07 % +18.18 % +5.18 % +13.34 % -10.26 % +7.73 % +2.40 %

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3 Years 5 Years 10 Years
Carmignac Patrimoine A EUR Acc -2.54 % +2.39 % +1.96 %
Reference Indicator +2.63 % +4.73 % +6.49 %

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Source: Carmignac at 30/04/2024

Entry costs : 4,00% of the amount you pay in when entering this investment. This is the most you will be charged. Carmignac Gestion doesn't charge any entry fee. The person selling you the product will inform you of the actual charge.
Exit costs : We do not charge an exit fee for this product.
Management fees and other administrative or operating costs : 1,51% of the value of your investment per year. This estimate is based on actual costs over the past year.
Performance fees : 20,00% max. of the outperformance once performance since the start of the year exceeds that of the reference indicator and if no past underperformance still needs to be offset. The actual amount will vary depending on how well your investment performs. The aggregated cost estimation above includes the average over the last 5 years, or since the product creation if it is less than 5 years.
Transaction Cost : 0,63% of the value of your investment per year. This is an estimate of the costs incurred when we buy and sell the investments underlying the product. The actual amount varies depending on the quantity we buy and sell.

Carmignac Patrimoine A EUR Acc

ISIN: FR0010135103

Recommended minimum investment horizon

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Main risks of the Fund

EQUITY: The Fund may be affected by stock price variations, the scale of which is dependent on external factors, stock trading volumes or market capitalization.

INTEREST RATE: Interest rate risk results in a decline in the net asset value in the event of changes in interest rates.

CREDIT: Credit risk is the risk that the issuer may default.

CURRENCY: Currency risk is linked to exposure to a currency other than the Fund’s valuation currency, either through direct investment or the use of forward financial instruments.

The Fund presents a risk of loss of capital.

Source: Carmignac, 30/06/2021.

Marketing communication. Please refer to the KID/KIID, prospectus of the fund before making any final investment decisions. This document is intended for professional clients.

This material may not be reproduced, in whole or in part, without prior authorisation from the Management Company. This material does not constitute a subscription offer, nor does it constitute investment advice. This material is not intended to provide, and should not be relied on for, accounting, legal or tax advice. This material has been provided to you for informational purposes only and may not be relied upon by you in evaluating the merits of investing in any securities or interests referred to herein or for any other purposes. The information contained in this material may be partial information and may be modified without prior notice. They are expressed as of the date of writing and are derived from proprietary and non-proprietary sources deemed by Carmignac to be reliable, are not necessarily all-inclusive and are not guaranteed as to accuracy. As such, no warranty of accuracy or reliability is given and no responsibility arising in any other way for errors and omissions (including responsibility to any person by reason of negligence) is accepted by Carmignac, its officers, employees or agents.

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future performance. Performances are net of fees (excluding possible entrance fees charged by the distributor). The return may increase or decrease as a result of currency fluctuations, for the shares which are not currency-hedged.

Reference to certain securities and financial instruments is for illustrative purposes to highlight stocks that are or have been included in the portfolios of funds in the Carmignac range. This is not intended to promote direct investment in those instruments, nor does it constitute investment advice. The Management Company is not subject to prohibition on trading in these instruments prior to issuing any communication. The portfolios of Carmignac funds may change without previous notice. The reference to a ranking or prize, is no guarantee of the future results of the UCIS or the manager.

Morningstar Rating™ : © Morningstar, Inc. All Rights Reserved. The information contained herein: is proprietary to Morningstar and/or its content providers; may not be copied or distributed; and is not warranted to be accurate, complete or timely. Neither Morningstar nor its content providers are responsible for any damages or losses arising from any use of this information.

Access to the Funds may be subject to restrictions regarding certain persons or countries. This material is not directed to any person in any jurisdiction where (by reason of that person’s nationality, residence or otherwise) the material or availability of this material is prohibited. Persons in respect of whom such prohibitions apply must not access this material. Taxation depends on the situation of the individual. The Funds are not registered for retail distribution in Asia, in Japan, in North America, nor are they registered in South America. Carmignac Funds are registered in Singapore as restricted foreign scheme (for professional clients only). The Funds have not been registered under the US Securities Act of 1933. The Funds may not be offered or sold, directly or indirectly, for the benefit or on behalf of a «U.S. person», according to the definition of the US Regulation S and FATCA. The risks, fees and ongoing charges are described in the KID (Key Information Document). The KID must be made available to the subscriber prior to subscription. The subscriber must read the KID. Investors may lose some or all their capital, as the capital in the funds are not guaranteed. The Funds present a risk of loss of capital.

The Funds’ prospectus, KIDs, NAVs and annual reports are available at www.carmignac.com, or upon request to the Management Carmignac Portfolio refers to the sub-funds of Carmignac Portfolio SICAV, an investment company under Luxembourg law, conforming to the UCITS Directive. The French investment funds (fonds communs de placement or FCP) are common funds in contractual form conforming to the UCITS or AIFM Directive under French law.

  • In France, Luxembourg, Sweden: The risks, fees and ongoing charges are described in the KID (Key Information Document). The KID must be made available to the subscriber prior to subscription. The subscriber must read the KID. Investors may lose some or all their capital, as the capital in the funds are not guaranteed. The Funds present a risk of loss of capital. The Funds’ prospectus, KIDs, NAV and annual reports are available at www.carmignac.com, or upon request to the Management.

  • In the United Kingdom: the Funds’ respective prospectuses, KIIDs and annual reports are available at www.carmignac.co.uk, or upon request to the Management Company, or for the French Funds, at the offices of the Facilities Agent at BNP PARIBAS SECURITIES SERVICES, operating through its branch in London: 55 Moorgate, London EC2R. This document was prepared by Carmignac Gestion, Carmignac Gestion Luxembourg or Carmignac UK Ltd. FP Carmignac ICVC (the “Company”) is an Investment Company with variable capital incorporated in England and Wales under registered number 839620 and is authorised by the FCA with effect from 4 April 2019 and launched on 15 May 2019. FundRock Partners Limited is the Authorised Corporate Director (the “ACD”) of the Company and is authorised and regulated by the FCA. Registered Office: Hamilton Centre, Rodney Way, Chelmsford, Essex, CM1 3BY, UK; Registered in England and Wales with number 4162989. Carmignac Gestion Luxembourg SA has been appointed as the Investment Manager and distributor in respect of the Company. Carmignac UK Ltd (Registered in England and Wales with number 14162894) has been appointed as a sub-Investment Manager of the Company and is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority with FRN:984288.

  • In Switzerland: the prospectus, KIDs and annual report are available at www.carmignac.ch, or through our representative in Switzerland, CACEIS (Switzerland), S.A., Route de Signy 35, CH-1260 Nyon. The paying agent is CACEIS Bank, Montrouge, Nyon Branch / Switzerland, Route de Signy 35, 1260 Nyon.

The Management Company can cease promotion in your country anytime. Investors have access to a summary of their rights in English on the following links: UK ; Switzerland ; France ; Luxembourg ; Sweden.